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Griffin’s Tony Predictions, 2016 Edition

A FEW SENTENCES ABOUT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

At standing ovation central, all eyes are rolling towards all things Hamiltonand let’s be honest, it’s earned every tickertape huzzah. So naturally, when it comes to this year’s Tonys, Hamilton bellied up to the nominee bar with a sweet 16 nominations. Will it take them all? No... and actually it can’t since it has multiple nominees in one category. Additionally, the 2015-2016 season’s talent/creative pool is packed. Oh, Hamilton will definitely waltz home with an armful of statuettes, but the count, I believe, will be less than most would imagine. Bottom line: This Pulitzer Prize-winning musical will continue influence Broadway and audiences for decades no matter how many Tonys it scoops up.

BEST NEW PLAY:

Nominees:  Eclipsed, The Father, The Humans, King Charles III 

Commentary: This is a pretty tight race between Eclipsed  and The Humansboth are outstanding. King Charles III was also pretty darn amazing, but since it’s not currently running and it opened early in the season, it suffered from voter memory lapse, I’m afraid.

Will Win: Eclipsed


BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY:

Nominees:  Arthur Miller’s The Crucible; Arthur Miller’s A View from the Bridge; Blackbird; Long Day’s Journey Into Nigh; Noises Off

Commentary: Again, a difficult call. Every one of these shows productions had me spellbound... and all of them were devastating in their own way. I still shake a bit when passing the Blackbird marquee. Still director Ivo Van Hove had monumental visions for both Arthur Miller plays...which more than gives him the edge.

Will Win: Arthur Miller’s A View from the Bridge

 

BEST NEW MUSICAL:

Nominees:  Bright Star; Hamilton; School of Rock – The Musical; Suffle Along, Or The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed; Waitress

Commentary: Duh.

Will Win: Hamilton

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:

Nominees:  The Color Purple; Fiddler on the Roof; She Loves Me; Spring Awakening

Commentary: And the good stuff just keeps rolling in.... I adored every one of these productions and was particularly smitten by how brilliantly reconceived they were from their last Broadway incarnation.

Will Win: The Color Purple


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY:

Nominees:  Gabriel Byrne (Long Day’s Journey Into Night); Jeff Daniels (Blackbird); Frank Langella (The Father); Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III); Mark Strong (Arthur Miller’s A View from the Bridge)

Commentary: In this category I have to lean towards the guy battling dementia... a role that allows so many layers that he pulled off to perfection.

Will Win: Frank Langella

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY:

Nominees:  Jessica Lang (Long Day’s Journey Into Night); Laurie Metcalf (Misery); Lupita Nyong’o (Eclipsed); Sophie Okonedo (Arthur Miller’s The Crucible); Michelle Williams (Blackbird)

Commentary: A great season for strong women’s roles and actresses who rip your heart out with their formidable and gorgeous performances. That said....

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL:

Nominees:  Alex Brightman (School of Rock – The Musical); Danny Burstein (Fiddler on the Roof); Zachary Levi (She Loves Me); Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton); Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton)

Commentary: I know the obvious choice for this is Mr. Miranda, and he a strong and appealing actor... but as the creator and nominee for Best Book of a Musical, I think this one will to Burstein (and not just because I misspelled his name in a recent article). Burstein is long overdue for a Tony win and his Tevye is perfection.

Will Win: Danny Burstein

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL:

Nominees:  Laura Benanti (She Loves Me); Carmen Cusack (Bright Star); Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple); Jessie Mueller (Waitress); Phillipa Soo. (Hamilton)

Commentary: The buzz is a tight race between Erivo and Soo, but Erivo’s Celie is the central character and as such has a far greater range of ebbs and falls.

Will Win: Cynthia Erivo

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY:

Nominees:  Reed Birney (The Humans); Bill Camp (Arthur Miller’s The Crucible); David Furr (Noises Off); Richard Goulding (King Charles III); Michael Shannon (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)

Commentary: The elder statesman on this list is the front runner thanks to his realistic and at times wrenching father in The Humans.

Will Win: Reed Birney

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY:

Nominees:  Pascale Armand (Eclipsed); Megan Hilty (Noises Off); Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans); Andrea Martin (Noises Off!); Saycon Sengbloh (Eclipsed)

Commentary: Both Eclipsed actresses were stunning in their respective roles, buy my vote goes to Reed Birney’s counterpart in The Humans – the  mother figure that haunts us all.

Will Win: Jayne Houdyshell

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL:

Nominees:  Daveed Diggs (Hamilton); Brandon Victor Dixon (Shuffle Along....); Christopher Fitzgerald (Waitress); Jonathan Groff (Hamilton); Christopher Jackson (Hamilton)

Commentary: The ultimate crap shoot here as every one has at least one show-stopping moment. For my part I’d like to see Dixon win, but with three Hamiltonians in contention, I’m reaching into my hat and coming up with...

Will Win: Jonathan Groff


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL:

Nominees:  Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple); Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton);

Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me); Jennifer Simard (Disaster!); Adrienne Warren (Shuffle Along...)

Commentary: I’m going out an a limb here and voting for dark horse Jennifer Simard. She managed to elevate parody to divine status in the loopiest musical to hit Broadway this season.

Will Win: Jennifer Simard

Moving on to the people behind the people above... i.e., the people who made sure the actors... had something fabulous to say (or sing); knew where to move (and why); the perfect set to navigate; dance moves (where applicable); a swell wardrobe, etc.

PLAYS


BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY:

Nominees: Rupert Goold (King Charles III); Jonathan Kent (Long Day’s Journey Into Night); Joe Mantello (The Humans); Liesl Tommy (Eclipsed); Ivo Van Hove (Arthur Miller’s A View from the Bridge)

Will Win: Ivo Van Hove

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY:

Nominees: Beowulf Boritt (Therese Raquin); Christopher Oram (Hughie); Jan Versweyveld (A View from the Bridge); David Zinn (The Humans)

Will Win: Christopher Oram

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY:

Nominees: Jane Greenwood (Long Days Journey Into Night); Michael Krass (Noises Off); Clint Ramos (Eclipsed); Tom Scutt (King Charles III)

Will Win: Tom Scutt

 

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY:

Nominees: Natasha Katz (Long Days Journey Into Night); Justin Townsend (The Humans); Jan Versweyveld (Arthur Miller’s The Crucible); Jan Versweyveld (Arthur Miller’s A View from the Bridge)

Will Win: Jan Versweyveld (Arthur Miller’s The Crucible)

 

MUSICALS

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL:

Nominees: Steve Martin (Bright Star); Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton); Julian Fellowes (School of Rock – The Musical); George C. Wolfe (Shuffle Along

Will Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS) WRITTEN FOR THE THEATRE:

Nominees: Steve Martin & Edie Brickell (Bright Star); Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton); Andrew Lloyd Webber & Glenn Slater (School of Rock); Sara Bareilles (Waitress)

Will Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda

 

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS:

Nominees: August Eriksmoen (Bright Star); Larry Hochman (She Loves Me); Alex Lacamoire (Hamilton); Daryl Waters (Shuffle Along...)

Will Win: Alex Lacmoir

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL:

Nominees: Michael Arden (Spring Awakening); John Doyle (The Color Purple); Scott Ellis (She Loves Me); Thomas Kail (Hamilton); George C. Wolfe (Shuffle Along...)

Will Win: Thomas Kail

 

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY:

Nominees: Andy Blankenbuehler (Hamilton); Savion Glover (Shuffle Along...); Hofesh Shechter (Fiddler on the Roof); Randy Skinner (Dames at Sea); Sergio Trujillo (On Your Feet...)

Will Win: Savion Glover

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:

Nominees: Es Devlin & Finn Ross (American Psycho); David Korins (Hamilton); Loquasto (Shuffle Along...); David Rockwell (She Loves Me)

Will Win: David Rockwell

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:

Nominees: Greg Barnes (Tuck Everlasting); Jeff Mahshie (She Loves Me); Ann Roth (Shuffle Along...); Paul Tazewell (Hamilton)

Will Win: Paul Tazewell

 

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:

Nominees: Howell Binkley (Hamilton); Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer (Shuffle Along...); Ben Stanton (Spring Awakening); Justin Townsend  (American Psycho)

Will Win: Howard Binkley

About the Author

City Guide Theatre Editor Griffin Miller moved to New York to pursue an acting/writing career in the 1980s after graduating magna cum laude from Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio. Since then, she has written for The New York Times, For the Bride, Hotels, and a number of other publications, mostly in the areas of travel and performance arts. An active member of The New York Travel Writers Association, she is also a playwright and award-winning collage artist. In addition, she sits on the board of The Lewis Carroll Society of North America. Griffin is married to Richard Sandomir, a reporter for The New York Times.

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